Saturday, February 26, 2011

The 83rd Academy Awards 2011. Predictions And Speculation



Everyone is doing them. Why not me? Besides, I have some money riding on this.

What I'll do is give you the usual: My choices on the winners (indicated by a ★) with who should win (♥) and those few maybe that will win after my first choice (R, for Runner-up).

And I'll also go into a little detail why I think my picks will win, why my favorites should, and give you insight into some Academy Awards history.

This should be fun. Here we go.

I'll start out with the Short Subjects.

Best Documentary Short Subject

"Killing in the Name" director, Jed Rothstein
"Poster Girl" directors, Sara Nesson & Mitchell W. Block
"Strangers No More" directors, Karen Goodman & Kirk Simon
"Sun Come Up" directors, Jennifer Redfeam & Tim Metzger
"The Warriors of Quigang" directors, Ruby Yang & Thomas Lennon

First, I haven't seen any of these entries. (I could now, having been available On Demand and iTunes since Tuesday.), but, as I usually complain, I'm short on finance.

I have no favorite, so you don't see a ♥. Though there is my pick, and it's based on critic consensus. They go with "Poster Girl."

I don't know the odds, but I like them.

Best Animated Short Subject


★ "Day and Night" director, Teddy Newton
R "The Gruffalo" directors, Jakob Schuh & Max Lang
"Let's Pollute" director, Geefwee Boedoe
"The Lost Thing" directors, Shaun Tan & Andrew Ruhemann
"Madagascar, A Journey Diary" director, Bastien Dubois

This time only one. That's easily Teddy Newton's "Day and Night," the short in front of Pixar's "Toy Story 3," a fun, jazzy look at two opposites seeing a little bit of the wonders each other has to hold.

I liked it, though feeling it was too preachy on difference and miscommunication (using Dr. Wayne Dyer's speech on fear of the unknown probably took it too far). The short mirrors it pretty well though, as Day and Night grow curious, then jealous, then joyous, perplexed, and finally renewed as one becomes the other, as day becomes night, and vice-versa.

This will win Best Animated Short Subject. Pixar Animation, like it's feature-length counterpart, has a track record in this category, having won 4 times. Disney Animation took home 1, with 4 nominations.

Some other critics go with "The Gruffalo." If "Day and Night" doesn't win, this will. Again, no favorite.

Best Live-Action Short Subject

"The Confession" director, Tanel Toom
"The Crush" director, Michael Creagh
"God of Love" director, Luke Matheny
"Na Wawe" director, Ivan Goldschmidt
★ "Wish 143" directors, Ian Barnes & Samantha Waite

Again (Oh, again), haven't seen these either. There was, like with the animations, a trailer showing clips of each. I did watch them (and, again!, the wholes are available via digital download and VOD), but I can't judge based on clips.

The consensus is with "Wish 143." I don't have a runner-up.

_____________________________________________________________________

Let's get technical!

Best Sound Mixing

★ ♥ "Inception" Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo & Ed Novick
R "The King's Speech," Paul Hamblin, Martin Jenson & John Midgley
"Salt," Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan & William Sarokin
"The Social Network," Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick & Mark Weingarten
"True Grit," Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff & Peter F. Kurland

Mixing is hard to judge, where most moviegoers wouldn't pay much attention to what the sound is doing (as is the point), but if you want to make an assumption consider that mixing is based on sound level. Mixers take the tracks for the given film (sound effects, dialogue, music), and balance it to make it all sound harmonious.

Think about if all that sound went on at once, at full level.

That wouldn't be too fun.

I know it's still hard to discern, but give it a try. You might find you're an expert on sound mixing boards.

Anyway, my pick isn't based on that, but my pick on best sound editor (or sound designer). I chose "Inception," designed by usual nominee, winner and expert at the craft Richard King, winning for "The Dark Knight" and "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," also being nominated for "War of the Worlds" and has done films like "Waterworld," "Twister," and Christopher Nolan's other efforts.

I feel, even as mixing and editing are two different jobs, usual done by two different teams of people, that they go hand in hand.

Because I can't discern like you experts, I go with "Inception" for Best Sound Mixing.

My runner-up is "The King's Speech." It's seems to be the upset pick, and as many predict it will be a royal night, then it will sweep a lot of it's nominations and snag this one.

Best Sound Editing

★ ♥ "Inception," Richard King 
R "Toy Story," Tom Myers & Michael Silvers
"Tron: Legacy," Gwendolyn Yates Whittle & Addison Teaque
"True Grit," Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
"Unstoppable," Mark P. Stoeckinger

Now, live-action, especially high genre works that literally have a lot of BANG! - like action or fantasy or war or science-fiction - usually dominate this category. "Inception" has been highly praised on it's crafty undertaking as well as story, and you could say, and should say, that it was because of all it's technical marvels.

I agree, and it will win. Imagine how challenging it must have been to jump from all four of Chris Nolan's dreamscape levels, from one to the other, from anther to the next, there and back again, and having to make it all seamless, yet still unique, separate, different, but all together whole and as one.

When it works, again you don't notice, and it's because you don't notice you should honor the unnoticed. 

My vote goes to King. Be king Sunday night, sir.

Runner-up should be "Toy Story 3," a movie where ALL sound is created. CG Animated film has gotten recognized in this category recently, but hasn't won. And should have when legend designer Ben Burt (for movies like "Star Wars") was nominated for "Wall-E." "Toy Story 3" could be the first, and it would be overdue. But still unlikely.

Best Visual Effects

R "Alice In Wonderland," Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas & Sean Phillips
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1," Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz & Nicolas Aithadi
"Hereafter," Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky & Joe Farrell
"Inception," Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley & Peter Bebb
"Iron Man 2," Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright & Daniel Sudick

Once more, big genre stuff - Blockbusters! - and typically CG effects that dominated the picture (and is one big reason tentpoles cost so much!).

"Inception" was given gold stars for it's effects as well, both CGI and practical skill alike. It didn't encompass, like my runner-up "Alice in Wonderland," but it has that seamless quality. The Academy likes that. 

They also like when it's on full display, as with Tim's Burton's very standard retro-goth spin on the Disney animated film. And animation did do wonders for Underland, and maybe it was more advanced than "Inception."

Like with last year's Jim Carmeron-sci-fi-effects-blast, "Avatar," Ken Ralston (another oft nominee and winner) and team used new techniques: How to work with actors against green-screen, doing a form of tracking and motion capture, while animating and compositing the rest of them. Helena Bonham Carter, as The Red Queen, acted in full costume and make-up, then had her head enlarged, her costume digital polished, and the two were put back together. Crispin Glover, as Stayne, dressed in a sort-of green jump suit, and even on stilts to appear taller, had most of his body CG coated while his head remained unaltered, his physical performance still being utilized in recored Motion Capture. 

Both Stayne and Red Queen are a form of seamlessness. I couldn't tell the animation away at all! (Besides the obscenely large head. "Down with the bloody big head!")

That goes for the full animated characters. The March Hare, White Rabbit, Caterpillar, Cheshire Cat, The Dormouse, Bayard the bloodhound, are all real animals (among the fantastical Jabborwocky and the Bandersnatch), and were challenged to look as photorealistic as possible as well as adhere to the physically loony comical nature that their characters required. 

With Mia Wasikowska as Alice and Johnny Depp as Mad Hatter, with Carter, Glover and another actor, Matt Lucas, MoCap-ed in as Tweedledum and Tweedledee, they needed to feel a part of that world, and them a part of Alice, too (remember, it could all still be a dream).

Seamlessness. And it was all so visual wondrous, too!

"Alice in Wonderland" is my love and runner-up, but "Inception" will get it. Besides, head supervisor Paul Franklin has never been nominated. Another trick in guessing Oscar: The Academy usually awards the recipient who shall finally have their turn, but only if it's predominate isn't the favorite to win. 

Best Make-Up

R "Barney's Version," Adrien Morot
"The Way Back," Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk & Yolanda Toussieng
★ ♥ "The Wolfman," Rick Baker & Dave Elsey

The youngest technical category (since 1981), The Academy since has had a hard time finding honorees for this one. This year's nominations are only three, and Peter Weir's award's neglected "The Way Back" has it's only nomination. It won't win, it's the dark horse. 

Only one maestro has kinged here. That's Rick Baker. Like Alan Menken (I'll get to him), he has won the most out of anyone in a single category, being nominated 12 times and winner of 6, even winning the first year of the award for another wolfman movie, "An American Werewolf in London." 

He has the prose! He has the track record! And he has the nostalgic touch! The classic-style appliance of monster (or what-have-you) make-up was improved by Baker and implemented by others, and though that's being slowly taken away by CGI, Rick did his usual and bang-up work on Benicio Del Toro for the flop and critical pan, fun of last winter's "The Wolfman." The movie was chock-full of cheap visual horror fun, and so was Baker's monster make-up. Most critics like that old, respectful technical approach. I think they'll honor it. 

However, considering Rick Baker has been so already remedied, the Academy will also likely give it to "Barney's Version." I haven't seen it, but I hear the make-up to age Paul Giamatti and others was poignant and subtle and was part of what was liked about the film. Also, Adrien Morot, a first-time nominee, was lobbied hard for the slot. He might just get it. 

Best Art Direction


R "Alice In Wonderland," Robert Stromberg & Karen O'Hara
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1," Stuart Craig & Stephanie McMillian
♥ "Inception," Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias & Doug Mowat
★ "The King's Speech," Eve Stewart & Judy Farr
"True Grit," Jess Gonchor & Nancy Haigh

Like with visual effects, this is a category that hands it to the most complex and visually delightful. Period pieces and fantasy are the winners here. My thinking will be "The King's Speech" will get it, being one of a few technical awards it will receive. If not, then "Alice in Wonderland," even though most of it was animated. In fact, the head designer Richard Stromberg is an effects supervisor (recently off "Avatar"). 

But my rule: He's won before, and Eve Stewart never has.

Guy Dyas' set design I like the most. Again it has similar to do with why I liked the sound. Dyas had to create four separate dream levels, and all of plush or steely decor, for each one, and work in different locations, from Paris, to London, to Tokyo.

How challenging, and fun, that most have been.

And, Ah!, working years he's never been nominated. He could be runner-runner-up.

You know, for "Inception," that's why I liked the cinematography, the editing, the music, and the direction as well, with the sound and set dress. To rousingly and convincingly jump from one moment, set-piece, and one particular slow-motion van dive (the editor I should thank for keeping those few seconds the most interesting throughout it all).

Could "Inception," the big movie of astounding visual and practical effects, rack up all the technical awards?

Best Costume Design

"Alice In Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
R "I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
★ ♥ "The King's Speech," Jenny Beavan 
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit," Mary Zophres

I would say, like sound mixing and editing, that costume and set design seem one, but of course they aren't. But they do complement each other. 

And The Academy thinks so. If the film of it's nomination wins Best Picture, Oscar history shows that that film wins both best costume and set design as well, and it's often a period drama like "The King's Speech." I even think so. I do love period costume. And this was done royally well. 

The "King" will win again. "Wonderland" will take it home if I'm wrong, and for art direction, too. But I feel that impressive fantasy flick, the second highest-grossing film this year, will not win either of it's three nominations. 

Sandy Powell, Mary Zophres, Colleen Atwood, and Jenny Beavan, my winner, are all previous nominees and winners, are are, inarguably, the best in their field. Antonella Cannarozzi, in opposite a foreign contestant, has never been nominated, and that rule of mine states she will win. But rarely a film wins for just the single category of costume.

However, it does sometimes, and it has, surprisingly, recently: "The Young Victoria," "The Duchess" "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" and "Marie Antoinette" are all single winners within the last ceremonies.

Cannarozzi may get the gold.

Or will "The King's Speech"win Best Picture?

Best Film Editing

"Black Swan," Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter," Pamela Martin
"The King's Speech," Tariq Anwar
R "127 Hours," Jon Harris
★ ♥ "The Social Network," Angus Wall & Kirk Baker

Another tough category, again being a craft that's really meant to be as indiscernible as possible. And only if the movie guys want you to notice it, and in turn take you on a kinetic, fast-cutting ride. 

Which is why action and war films win. But not often. The winner is with the Best Picture take home all.

Though other times, like with cinematography and music score, it goes to the best in the bunch, BP winner or not.

That's easily "The Social Network." It's my favorite, too. When I think of the editing, I think of the crew-rowing scene set to "In The Hall of the Mountain King." The cut's work with the music. It' such a fun scene to watch. This gets my vote, and it has gotten critics. 

Runner-up is "127 Hours." Another critic winner for best editing. 

Best Cinematography

"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
R "Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King's Speech," Danny Cohen
★ ♥ "True Grit," Roger Deakins
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenworth

The best gets the golden man here, and it's about time he did. Like Randy Newman before him (another nominee this year), shooter Roger Deakins has never won, being nominated 9 times. His work as director of photography is the most revered in the industry currently, and right now more than ever, being given a majority of critic's award and praise. He isn't a lock, but he will win. 

Roger is my personal favorite DP. I enjoy his images atmospherics of hushed yellow-glow lighting, gloomy shadow interior, and his glorious expanse of exterior landscapes, out in sheer display for "True Grit." That musky oil-lit courtroom, those expanse of no-man's-land, that urgent, hauntingly poignant steel-blue run through the starry night...

I like him because I find tranquility in his pictures, and that I can easily spot him in any movie I see. That candle-glow. Oh, man!

Roger, my heart goes to you. You have true grit, and will persevere. 

Still... 

There's a solid chance Deakins would be passed up yet again (Persevere, Roger). In that case, Wally Pfister, nominated in recent years, will get it as camera-op for "Inception." His work was just as praised, and he has yet to win. It would be one of four Chris Nolan's movie will win. 

Best Original Song

"Coming Home (from "Country Strong)," music and lyrics by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges & Hillary Lindsey
"I See The Light" (from "Tangled"), music by Alan Menken, lyrics by Glenn Slater
R "If I Rise" (from "127 Hours), music by A.R. Rahman, lyrics by Dido & Rollo Armstrong
★ ♥ "We Belong Together" (from "Toy Story 3"), music and lyrics by Randy Rewman

This category really never has a strong list, and it often gets nominated along with it's musical score equivalent. 

"Coming Home" is a fine country tune, and the only nomination for an otherwise panned holiday release. But a country song won last year, for "Crazy Heart." 

"I See The Light," from the Disney animated musical movie "Tangled," is another good song from an Alan Menken helmed Disney animated movie. 

Let me start it like this: His heyday for award wins is over, even as his career in animated musicals is being resurrected. 

He has won 8 times, being nominated 20, and has won the most in this category, and has the record for the most competitive Oscars presently. Walt Disney himself holds the all-timer for most wins and nominations, with a whopping 22 Oscars!, and 59 nominations! After After Menken in the music scene -  or in any scene - John Williams has 45 nominations.

So, Alan Menken will not win this year. And neither will John Williams. Or Walt Disney. 

That leaves "If I Rise," from "127 Hours," and "We Belong Together," from "Toy Story 3." 

I like Randy Newman. Where's my heart?

His music, as well as music for motion pictures, is the lightest, most cheerful, upbeat and sentimental stuff from one of the best pop-jazz musicians still hitting the piano (with contemporaries Elton John or Phil Collins, maybe). Even at his age, his work is still hip, and it always breaks your heart. 

Newman, after being nominated 10 times before winning best song for another Pixar movie, "Monster's Inc.," finds this year marks his 14 nomination. 

He may have won, and been nominated a bunch, but his work was the best here, and was part of one of the best reviewed movies, and box-office smashes, this year. Oscar honors moneymakers as much as aesthetic. 

A.R. Rahman, the indian musician who did the music for Danny Boyle's indie crowd-pleaser, and huge Oscar winner, "Slumdog Millionaire," was nominated and won, for both score and song, for that film. It is unlikely he will win again, near consecutively, but if Oscar pushes Randy aside, Rahman will get it for his sombering song. 

Best Original Score

♥ "How To Train Your Dragon" composer, John Powell
R "The King's Speech" composer, Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours" composer, A.R. Rahman
"Inception" composer, Hans Zimmer
"The Social Network" composers, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

This category almost always gets the winner constituted the best on the roster, and is always the favorite (again, Best Picture winner not a factory). First-time film composer Trent Reznor (lead singer and musician of Nine Inch Nails) and also relative newcomer Atticus Ross's slick-somber-techno score to "The Social Network" was highly championed by moviegoers and film music aficionados since the film's release last October. The score has also gotten most of the critic's awards. 

It will win for Best Original Score. 

But my favorite - and has no shot at winning - is first-time nominee John Powell for "How to Train Your Dragon," who has composed for animated film before, with pretty nifty results. This time, in the music to "How to Train Your Dragon," he has written the type of thematic, adventurous and big orchestra score I like, a-la John Williams. The ending fanfare, when Hiccup and his tribemates ride the dragons through the village, sweeping and looping through the sky, as Powell and Co. hit the orchestra hard, brought me back to seeing movies like I did in childhood. Escapist fare, here with the "Dragon's" main theme, signals adventure at every turn, and hints at new ones yet to come, like this film did (and there will be one). It gets you all excited, doesn't it?

People have championed it, I have championed it, but it sadly won't win. 

Alexandre Desplat, the french composer who in the last few years has shot to Hollywood composer stardom, has been nominated several times, never won, and should have won most times. I don't think he particularly deserves it for "The King's Speech," but The Academy will give him his maybe heldback statue if they decide to honor the film with a lot of wins. I don't think it will. I believe "The Social Network" is a lock. 

Hans Zimmer has won once, been nominated several times as well, and his work for "Inception" was just as applauded by film geek fanboys everywhere. He may upset and take it home. 

A.R. Rahman, again, has already won. 

____________________________________________________________________

Other Best Pictures.

Best Documentary Feature

★ ♥ "Exit Through The Gift Shop" director/producer, Banksy & Jaimie D'Cruz
"Gasland" director/producer, Josh Fox & Trish Adlesic
R "Inside Job" director/producer, Charles Gerguson and Audrey Marrs
"Restrepo" director/producer, Tim Hetherington & Sebastian Junger
"Waste Land" director/producer, Lucy Walker & Angus Aynsley

Bansky will win. The Academy thinks his monkey-head shenanigans will cause eccentric chaos, but his push is very strong for the win. In that case his producer, Jaimie D'Cruz, would accept at the podium.

But they want hip, younger viewers, don't they?...

I also want "Exit Through The Gift Shop" to win. His (with "Restrepo") is the only one I viewed, but it had such an impact.

What an impact!

The reason: his movie is the reason documentaries are made, and why they are so mesmerizing as real-life stories that could be so unbelievable, yet thrown into absent mindlessness of character it boggles the noggin to thing this is real life, and these are real people.

The subject is a Los Angeles Frenchman, shopkeeper Thierry Guettad. He's an eccentric, but rather smart business runner, buying thrift clothes, than selling them for a ridiculous price, passing it off as designer clothing! 

And as an eccentric, he has an obsession (indicated by a blind side when his mother died) to film every moment of his life with a small DV camera, intending to not miss a second of his life, recorded and cemented forever on tape. 

But not every birthday or every first word. Every waking moment. 

Through interest and curiosity this gets him into the world of street art. He meets, and subsequently interviews, these artists, gaining access to their nightly art escapades by convincing them he is filming a documentary. 

Do we know that for sure he is serious? We expect at first he is, but we learn, farther down the line - as he meets and befriends the never-seen, famous Brit artist Banksy, helping him with his art (still filming), gaining admittance into his studio, his life - that his idea of a documentary is absolute (quoting those brits) bollocks. And it's cemented when Banksy is shown the first cut, a kinetic whirlwind of images set to screaming rock and flashing effects and cuts, having no discernible idea about it and could be the extended trailer for what could be "Banksy's Art On Crack." 

As Banksy mildly put it, he took the movie into his own hands. 

And he got an Oscar nomination (they should do a sequel showing this whole awards business!).

And Thierry goes off and does a big street art show, on Bansky's request allowing him to fix the disaster of the documentary. 

And the surprise: Thierry is a big success, and is now one of the biggest, and hottest, exhibition artists in Los Angles. 

This is what makes "Exit Through The Gift Shop" so memorable, so uproarious, pitiful and morally-questioning. And why most newsmen, or doc filmmakers, would kill to tell a story like this. 

Of course, they could never have dreamed for the turn the whole show would take.

That's what makes it what it is. Thierry, that smartly idiot business man, had enough stamina and stubbornness and sheer stupidity to make his street show a rousing triumph. 

But, like his clothes business, it's all a fluke. His art is bogus! It's photocopied nonsense that may mean something to Thierry, something far off to hip young artistically-minded yuppie/hipsters, and superfluous passings-off to great art by Banksy and others, even the ones that Thierry had filmed and interviewed and of whom had hours on tape. 

And that mysterious Banksy went in and found the story, knew it's potential, saw how morally-wronged, how quite funny, this whole Thierry business really was. 

Again, you could only dream of a subject like Thierry Guetta. Banksy found him. 

In short: "Exit Through The Gift" should, and will, win Best Documentary Feature. 

Although, if The Academy decides Bansky will pull something off, something odd, obscene, political or otherwise, they will give it to the more honorable, and more morally challenging, "Inside Job."

But I think we'll be seeing a monkey-head on Oscar night. Or D'Cruz in a Sean Penn mask. 

Best Foreign Language Feature

"Biutiful" (Mexico)
R "Dogtooth" (Greece)
"In A Better World" (Denmark)
"Incendies" (Canada)
"Outside The Law" (Algeria)

Another category where I haven't seen any of the nominees. Three even have yet to be released in the United States. 

The critic consensus picks "Incendies" to win, and some go with "In A Better World." My guess if those don't, the unusual, but critically praised "Dogtooth,"about parents who seclude their grown-up children to house with strangely grotesque and frightening results, will get it. But it has been controversial. An example of this includes a dog killing scene.

Or it could be Javier Bardem's Oscar nominated vehicle "Biutiful," by famous Mexican director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. 

 Best Animated Feature

"How To Train Your Dragon" directors, Chris Sanders & Dean Beblois
R "The Illusionist" director, Syvain Chomet
★ ♥ "Toy Story 3" director, Lee Unkrich

The youngest Oscar category, instituted in 2002, and being a huge admirer for the craft about time, too. Animated film had been overlooked up until then, and this gave animators the chance for their films, mostly getting better in recent years, to be considered more when Best Picture mostly overlooked them. Now, while those better, excellent Pixar films where still not honored in that category, did the Academy expand the Best Picture race from 5 to 10, haven't being done since 1943, including more comedies and indies as well.

Anyway, this should be an easy peasy to guess. Pixar has won every time it's been nominated in this category, only missing twice: that first year, "Monster's Inc." to an equally popular "Shrek," and "Cars" to "Happy Feat" in 2007. And it deserved it every time. 

And "Toy Story 3" certainly does deserve it again now. It's the one critical and audience and moneymaking crowd-pleaser of the year. Again, The Academy honors the most popular movie, especially in this category. 

However, frenchman Syvain Chomet has his second nomination for "The Illusionist," after the fun little offbeat animated flick "The Triplets of Belleville." The disappointment could be that Chomet would win. 

Though it wouldn't be a bad upset. "The Illusionist" is a prestigious honoree. And Hayao Miyazaki's "Spirited Away" won over the more commercially well-liked "Lilo and Stitch" in 2003. 

"How to Train Your Dragon," another critical and audience success, could also win, but this would constitute an upset. 

_________________________________________________________________________

And now the big ones!

Best Adapted Screenplay

R "127 Hours," Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy 
★ ♥ "The Social Network," Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Michael Arndt
"True Grit," Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter's Bone," Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Possibly the only sure lock for the ceremony. Aaron Sorkin,  praised once before (though not nominated) for that famous courtroom suspense/drama "A Few Good Men" ("You Can't Handle The Truth!"), will win for Best Adapted Screenplay for his work on "The Social Network."

He should, too. His script was part of the acclaim for the movie (with the score and David Fincher's direction), and why he does deserve it is his quick-cuing dialogue. It was hard-to-follow, but rollicking fun to keep up with the actors churning out all of Sorkin's words, and I sure love a good talkie, and one that moves at 90 miles an hour! 

Also, as an adaptation and structured script, it was indeed very good. Being able to jump from court deposition to the various moments of Facebook's uprising, from the friendship of Zuckerberg and Saverin, their slow, venemous falling out, and to Sean Parker's devious intrusion in it all, staying thematically as a classic story of class, power, success, betrayal, and all of it coming between friendship.

And Mark, in the middle, unsure of his loyalty or precisely what he wants. 

Sorkin really did this all very well. It was well balanced.

Again, that seamlessness. 

If by some major surprise (very unlikely), Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy will win for "127 Hours." Keep in mind, of course, that this duo won for "Slumdog Millionaire."

Michael Arndt, for "Toy Story 3," took home the award for Original Screenplay for "Little Miss Sunshine," in 2007.

The Brothers have won before, in this category and others.

"Winter's Bone" is the upset pick, but is surely a dark horse. Don't expect it.

Best Original Screenplay

"Another Year," Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson & Keith Dorrington
R "Inception," Christopher Nolan
"The Kid's Are All Right," Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
★ ♥ "The King's Speech," David Seidler

David Seidler, 73-year-old penner for "The King's Speech," with no previous Academy Award nomination, will get Best Original Screenplay. And reasoning shows he gets the vote from older Academy members. Not to mention the sympathy vote.

He wrote about a stammerer. And he too is a stammerer. He knows it better than he, eh?

But he deserves it, too. His script is very sympathetic and cautious to this very real story. He spent years (possibly longer than Chris Nolan) writing and researching his subject, even waiting for Queen Mother to pass on before going ahead to complete it.

Seidler's concentration on George and Lionel, who they are, and their progressive friendship, was taken on wonderfully. Character triumph gest my vote, and it gets everyone else's, too.

Chris Nolan's "Inception," having been snubbed for Best Director, is runner-up and likely to win if voters want his very popular blockbuster to get some of the cheese.

His "Inception" script was indeed "original," but he lacks character roundedness, and his film didn't have the cherished commodity of emotional impact as did the "King," even with all the praise on that originality and writing ability to pen those glorious and action-filled dreamscape set-pieces.

Mike Leigh, the Brit-master of the improvised comedy/drama, has now been nominated 7 times, and has yet to win.

But his work is still a long-shot. Consider his screenplays are surely unscripted, even as his ideas are entirely his, but the scenes are found in the actor's impromptu.

If Leigh wins, he is the upset pick. But even with 7 noms, does he deserve a win?

The scripts for "The Figther" and "The Kids Are All Right," being very typical, though hugely effective, scripted material, won't win.

Best Supporting Actress


Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
R Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"


The category ripe with disappointment.  


Honestly, it could go to either one. And it would seem the right fit all along, or like it was a "Hey!, it's the upset category!"


My pick is young Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit." I don't think she deserves it (at least not this time), though she did a wonderful job in embodiment of a hardbodied western kiddie Mattie Ross, the religious guider and stubborn avenger who finds love and courage through a grilled old marshal, and hard truth through the very real old west.


And Haliee sure hit the dialect spot on.


Still, here's my thing on Steinfeld. I have a feeling, seeing as this is her first feature, that she might not be the big success we would expect of her, and that she's getting the praise too early, and she, and we, are eating it up. Winner or not, she will start getting offers (probably already is), but would it be work like "Grit?," or teeny-bopper silliness that will put her easily into obscurity.


She won't become Lindsey Lohan. Oh, no. But I think we expect she takes the challenging roles like her familair, Saoirse Ronan, Oscar nominated for "Atonment" in the 2008 ceremony.


But will she?


Regardless, I think Hailee will win. The Academy didn't give it to Ronan, and hasn't since Paquin won in 1994 for "The Piano." It may be time again.


My favorite is Melissa Leo for "The Fighter." Like Christian Bale, her performance was immersive and transforming. She was killer as menacing mother/manger with a ragtag daughter posse, but with a soft heart and good intentions. Leo was nominated once before, for leading actress in "Frozen River," and is the runner-up in this category if Steinfeld does not win.


But who really knows?


It could be Amy Adams, another terrific and mutative work in "The Fighter," and has been nominated before without a win.

Or Helena Bonham Carter for "The King's Speech." Her performance as The Queen Mother wasn't a show-stopper (I did indeed like her better as the screaming Red Queen), but The Academy could give it to this once before nominated actress in this very honorable performance.

It really could be a "King's Speech" year, though rarely does it pan down to this category.

Jacki Weaver could be the upset pick for her role as another mother baddie in "Animal Kingdom." She isn't a long shot, that doesn't doesn't exist in the category for Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

★ ♥ Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
R Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Christian Bale seems a lock as the once promising welterweight, crazy druggy Dicky Eklund in "The Fighter," and he's my favorite. You can easily see why. His very immersive portrayal is the type of work we love to see in the movies, and really ones based on true life and real-life persons, with the same type of affect "Exit Through The Gift Shop" had, at least on me. Dicky nails our hearts hard, makes us marvel on him, yearn somehow for him, devote pity and sham unto him, and never more so than Dicky's (Bale's) last few moments in the movie in pseudo-interview as he chokes up, for Dicky, for Boxing, for his life thrown in the gutter and now lost forever.

That moment had me. 

Bale will win. Although...

I want to let you in on whey Melissa Leo will not win in the other category...

Never. Ever. Has The Academy given Best Supporting Actor or Best Supporting Actress for the same film if it didn't win Best Bicture. Never. It hasn't happened. And even rarely with Best Picture wins.

It seems odd, but go with the history. And who knows why. It could be to spread the wealth, or some mis-idealized sense that some films just shouldn't get all the major awards by nixing the button supporting category.

So I highly predict that it will be very unlikely Melissa Leo wins for a surprise-prone category while the favorite almost always wins for Best Supporting Actor, and Bale's work was so strong. 

There really is no favorite, of course, for Best Supporting Actress. Which is why Leo, or Adams, won't get the award. Steinfeld, after them, is the most likely. 

I don't know for sure, but my fingers are crossed. So are my bets.

In the upset pick, Geoffrey Rush would win for "King." But like Carter, his performance wasn't showy.

Best Actress

R Annette Bening, "The Kid's Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Natalie Portman is the favorite, and has won most of the critic awards. Favorites win here, too. But it's a lower percentage then you might guess. There are upsets.

Annette Bening, being nominated now 4 times, will be the upset pick if Portman isn't given the award for her turn as anxiety-prone, peer-pressured into madness ballet dancer Nina Sayers. 

Portman did good. She got this character pretty well, and because of her youthfulness nailed her dependent girly aspects spot on. It was a near pathetic performance, and why it was so convincing. 

But Bening, as hard-working lesbian mommy to two sperm-donor kids in the comedy/drama "The Kids Are All Right," was a stronger performance. She should win.

And with those 4 noms it could be her turn anyway (many believe she should have won for "American Beauty"), and it wouldn't be a huge enough surprise.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, "Buitiful"
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Jessie Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
★ ♥ Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
R James Franco, "127 Hours"

The last few years, unquestionably, it's been so painlessly easy to find and pick the one actor who will be nominated and ultimately win the Oscar for Best Actor, to be hailed to the stars, and be completely unchallenged for it in the race. 

These were guys like Philip Seymor Hoffman, Forest Whitaker, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jamie Fox and Jeff Bridges, who have all won, and were sole tributes and admired for their turns, so absolutely convincing in their roles, it was a win predicted by the gods. And if not, there was easily a collective sigh or gasp in the Oscar audience.

And most of those winners portrayed real-life persons, chiefly famous, or infamous.

Though not quite there with those others, Colin Firth is still that man this year, surely playing a statured real-life figure. And the most prominent of them all: King George IV, mid-century King of Britain.

Talk about esteemed.

Firth isn't a sure lock, and hasn't very much been acclaimed the performance of the decade, but he was for a very light-accomplished year in excellent film and actor performance. He will win for Best Actor as King George the pitiful, temper-prone stammer. And Firth got this performance wonderfully, and after his equally great work as reserved, but lost middle-aged gay George, in "A Single Man," it's a near sure push to give it to him for "The King's Speech."

But, there are upsets here sometimes (with Best Actress). Sean Penn took it away from favorites Bill Murrey ("Lost in Translation") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") before.

Though there is no Sean Penn in the category now, it could go to Jesse Eisenberg for "The Social Network" as Mark Zuckerburg or James Franco in "127 Hours" as Aaron Ralston, and most likely Franco. Both are young actors, and first-time nominees. But that rule: The Academy may think they will have other shots in the future.

So Firth would be about 90 percent. Or Eisenberg could be the youngest winner in the category, or Franco could have to quip about running to accept the award and run back to host the show.

Best Director

"Black Swan," Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter," David O. Russell
R "The King's Speech," Tom Hooper
"The Social Network," David Fincher 
♥ "True Grit," Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Oscar history shows most times the movie to win Best Picture snags Best Director. Easily predictable scenario, but it makes sense. Who is really responsible for the movie being so good?

They should just nix this category and give directors their real due in the main race. The producers instead should have their own ballot.

Not likely. And I don't feel a vibe the rest of you would want to start a petition with me.

Director's Joel Coen and Ethan Coen get my vote for Best Directors. I'll go more into "True Grit," but again they've had their limelight, so they won't win.

So this year it would seem so that Tom Hooper, director of "The King's Speech," will win, being his film is inevitably rising to the top of the "yes"-vote pile. But I don't think so.

David Fincher, director of "The Social Network," complementing writer Sorkin's super-quick dialogue by making it quicker, having his actors blast through it all a mile a millisecond and harnessing their best performances to date (and his, too), has the vote from most critics, and his work was more admired than Hooper's, whose is equally adherent to visuals, pace and work with actors, but may be brushed-off for The Academy vote.

It rarely happens, directors winning for a movie not garnering The Big One. Hooper should have more chances in the future. So will Fincher. With a little gold backing.

But the vote is still torn between these two films. Which film, "The King's Speech" or "The Social Network," will take it home? 
______________________________________________________________________

And NOW!

Best Picture

"Black Swan" producers, Mike Medovoy, Brian Oliver & Scott Franklin
"The Fighter" producers, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg
"Inception" producers, Emma Thomas & Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right" producers, Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte & Celine Rattray
"The King's Speech" producers, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman & Gareth Unwin 
"127 Hours" producers, Christian Colson, Danny Bolye & John Smithson
R "The Social Network" producers, Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca & Cean Chaffin
"Toy Story 3" producer, Darla K. Anderson
♥ "True Grit" producers, Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
"Winter's Bone" producers, Anne Rosellini & Alix Madigan-Yorkin

The race has doubled from 5 nominations to 10, a petition finally won when those few certain films (those Pixars and comedies) weren't getting recognized. 

So, here they are, all 10, glory film lo-and-behold, the best selected for the most prestigious movie award ceremony 82 years running: Derelict Lower-Class Winter Hell. Survival in the Crevasse. Family Woos and Sperm Donors. Real-Life Boxing Dramatics. Toys That Make You Blobber.

Crazy ballet. Sci-fi Action Dreamscapes. Western Revenge Glory. Pretentious Computer Hackers. And Royal Triumphs.

For some of them, the nomination is the real true honor...

Because they don't stand a lick at winning at all.

The real five are: "Inception," Christopher's Nolan's hugely popular science-fiction blockbuster about thiefs who infiltrate your mind. "Black Swan," indie director Darren Aronofsky's signature decent into madness finds a ballet dancer pressured into perfection as she's being tormented by her own inner demons. "True Grit," my favorite, The Coen Brothers second adaptation of a Charles Portis comic western novel about a spirited, hard-headed teenager who hires a wizened drunkard of a marshall to pursue the man who shot her father in cold blood. This one has a zero shot, and I would agree anyway that The Coen's have had their glory already, having won with "No Country For Old Men," a western within itself, taking home screenplay, direction and picture.

But it's my favorite, and my pick as the year's best film, because, like everyone's heart "The King's Speech,"the movie hit's you pretty hard emotionally.

But The Coen's do it much more uniquely.

Mattie Ross, the plucky young hero with a right-mind but a misguided since that she must avenge her father and that the whole affair will be an adventure waiting to take her into her seemingly delayed chapter into adulthood.

Rooster Cogburn, the slurring, old drunk marshall, defined as the meanest, with "true grit," is coaxed by sure-talking Mattie to hunt down the killer, Tom Chaney. A slightly clueless egocentric Texas Ranger, named LaBoeuf, tags along.

As they travel along the trio develop their own respects for each other, even through LaBoeuf hindering off, Cogburn shotting and killing and getting drunk and remising about wives and failed restaurant endeavors. Even through this Mattie continues to stay determined about it all, though losing slowly her romantic grasp on the vengeance she so craves. She does succeed, and killer Chaney gets his due, but she loses her spirit and resolve. Mattie is bitten on the hand by a rattlesnake...

And Rooster rides her off into the starry night, on her pony Little Blackie, as Carter Burwell soft plays a recurring piano hymn, until the poor animal is spent. Rooster continues on, carrying Mattie as he runs, huffing along, until...

They're in front of the healer's cabin. He's spent. But not just yet. He fires his pistol. The Healer finds them. He succeeded, but Mattie is unconscious. You only hope.

"I have grown old"....

We hear first, her older self, and we know it's years now down the road: "I wasn't awake when I lost the arm..."

Mattie fails to see Rooster again before he passes. She stands before his grave, thinking of him, a respect, a love, gone without a thank you or a goodbye. She walks away, as like the old Mattie she used to be, though a fragile shell, as dignified as she can, thinking of their old adventure and of Laboeuf and how she'd like to see him. The the credits roll, the the music achingly plays, in what we maybe imagine is her own sorrowed voice...

"Safe and secure from all alarms, leaning on the everlasting arms..."

The Coen Brothers are not known to be sentimental. But they get this, this "True Grit," just right. Staying near neutral throughout it all, still determined and unvaried as is through Mattie's eyes, until that starry night ride to save her life. That scene, and it's somber ending, where tender just enough, that hit the right spot and tore our hearts open and and made us ache.

It isn't Spielberg. But it's perfect.

That's why "True Grit" is my favorite movie. It just won't win Best Picture...

So the two real contenders are: "The Social Network," David Fincher's fast-moving contemporary Shakespearian-ode to power and betrayal about the twenty-somethings who founded Facebook, and the suits that followed to the sites creator, Mark Zuckerberg, the youngest billionaire in the world. And "The King's Speech," about King George IV, who became reluctant successor to the British Throne when his brother, the real heir, renounced to marry, leaving George to run a nation. Except he had a terrible stammer. The story follows his friendship with unlikely chap of a doctor, Lionel Logue, a failed Aussie actor who runs a vocal clinic, and the two's success for one speech, the first address by George to the world during the early hours of World War II.

It's a real success story. A literal honorable crowd-pleaser and feel-gooder (word-of-mouth just put it past 100m domestically). This is why The Academy Awards will give this film the big prize for Best Motion Picture of the Year.

The Academy loves to honor these types of films for Best Picture. "The King's Speech" is certainly that. And the movie just has that "prestigious" marking to get it. Real royal class and a production that lavishes it's period setting.

And let's not forget most Academy voters are older (some younger, too) and would certainly select the most reputable and respectfully inclined out of all the nominees, as is the prerogative with voters over 50 (you can give your own opinion). And that's with younger voters too, who will mostly vote for "The Social Network," the more morally-testing piece. Some of The Academy would honor such a film as well.

But would the collective consensus really be for those 20-year-old ostentatious techno nerds? Would it seem more - "principled" and "righteous" and really indeed "honorable" - to give the award to a virtuous royal family, whose palpable agenda as rulers would be to ultimately triumph in the face of the impossible? They are the King's, they are the Queens, and they are underdog aussies.

And they all are very much indeed older.

"The King's Speech" will win Best Picture.

Though something to think as I leave you to ponder on this...

If you do look at the last decade of Best Picture winners, notice that two certain films, in a consecutive order, have gotten the award every other year.

Here's what I mean: "The Hurt Locker" - Challenging film. "Slumdog Millionaire" - Crowd-pleaser.

"No Country For Old Men" - challenging film. "The Departed" - crowd-pleaser

You getting this?

"Crash" - challenging film. "Million Dollar Baby" - crowd-pleaser.

You got it? Okay...

"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" - crowd-pleaser... okay, streak broken. But wait!...

"Chicago" - crowd-pleaser. "A Beautiful Mind" - crowd-pleaser. "Gladiator" - crowd-pleaser.

"American Beauty" - challenging film....

Do you see the pattern?...

Yeah, not really. But look at the majority.

Most crowd-pleasers. That word. The Academy. The Public. The World. Love Crowd-Pleasers.

Unless I'm mistaken, very very mistaken, unless there is a pattern, the stretch will continue with another challenger. For those who stand by it, circle in "The Social Network."

But I don't say so. No, sir!

"And the Oscar goes to..."

"...The King's Speech!" Applause around - various acceptance speeches - more applause until...

"This is The 83rd Academy Awards. Goodnight, everybody! Thanks for watching!"

___________________________________________________________________

And thanks for reading. Good luck with your polls, you amateur experts. And good luck to the nominees.

And remember: it's not a night for the prestige, the glamour, the gowns, the dance and song intervals, the host gags, the walk and smile and camera SNAP on the red carpet, the sheer glamourous display of awards and stars and fabulous decor enveloped in movie-allure and the expectant call of the envelope -

 - but a night for the movies.